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Music (Not Necessarily For The Revolution)

I made a “mixtape” a few days ago, just because. I uploaded it to teh internets today, just because. If you want, you can download it here. Tracklist below:

1. Beirut – Cliquot
2. Gentleman Reg – It’s Not Safe
3. Mirah – Pollen
4. Billy Bragg & Wilco – Way Over Yonder In The Minor Key
5. Pinback – Fortress
6. Dodos – Walking
7. The Fiery Furnaces – Tropical Ice-Land
8. Talking Heads – Wild Wild Life
9. TV on the Radio – Red Dress
10. M.I.A. – 20 Dollar
11. Franco Battiato – Ruby Tuesday
12. The Decemberists – Sons & Daughters
13. The Shins – Those To Come

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The “News” In “Brief”

-The big news, of course, is that the (first…) economic stimulus bill passed the US House. The big byline is that not one single Republican Congressperson voted for the bill, and conservative pundits are whining about it as a defeat for Obama, especially after he spent time on Capitol Hill lobbying the Republican lawmakers. Of course, the bill still has to pass the Senate, which is the only place where Republican votes matter, and there is only one vote that even matters there: the one Republican that joins with the 59 Democratic Senators to make the 60-vote threshold to pass bills in that chamber. The actual important issue with the stimulus bill is that it was made too small to be fully effective (was it really necessary to make the bill too small in order to get approval of conservative Democrats and one moderate Republican or is the Obama Administration that moderate itself?). This allows the Republicans to attack Obama and the Democrats later when the stimulus fails to be fully effective, and unless Obama can out-politic them and use the partial failure to get another stimulus bill passed the far-right will get what it wants: as little government action on the economy as possible (yay neo-Hooveritism!)

-As for government action on the economy, it seems more plausible that the US government is going to fully nationalize one of the new “Big Three Banks” (Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Citigroup) over the next few months (the government is already the largest shareholder in Bank of America and Citigroup: partial nationalization). From what I understand, something akin to how the Swedish nationalized banks a few years back seems like the best way to keep any semblance of a financial system in place and not completely screw over the US taxpayers. (As a sidenote, the recession is now the longest in a quarter century, consumer confidence is at the lowest level ever recorded, USAmerican household wealth has lost the most in history, and the Federal Reserve continued to exhaust its policy options by maintaining the benchmark interest rate at zero.)

-Senator Russ Feingold has introduced an amendment to the US Constitution to mandate that Senate vacancies must be filled by special election and not gubernatorial appointment. Given what has happened in Illinois and New York, this seems like a good idea; it is also more democratic. Since we are on the topic, how about we make the necessary amendments to the Constitution to make our electoral system better and more democratic, such as abolishing the Electoral College/directly electing the President, ending gerrymandering/single-party rule in House districts, allowing the USAmerican citizens of the District of Columbia (which is 60% African-American…) to actually elect their government and have a say in the House and Senate, increasing the size of the House to a reasonably representative level, instituting instant runoff voting for the President, House seats, and any other single-member districts, either granting independence or statehood to the five inhabited US colonies, and maybe even making the Senate elected by a national proportional representation system(!).

-The International Criminal Court has begun its first trial, that of Thomas Lubanga. The ICC is probably a good idea (if Obama and the Democrats sign the US up, pending their “review of its performance,” maybe Bush, Cheney et al. will be tried for their numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity (yeah right…)), but, like most supranational bodies (see the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, etc.), it is controlled by USAmerican and European powers and as such it is unlikely that any war criminals will be indicted from truly powerful, industrialized nations. For example, all twelve of those who have been indicted by the ICC to date are Africans.

-Ethiopia pulled out its occupying troops from Somalia recently. Of course, this was shortly before the Bush Administration was about to leave office; given that the US allowed (and pushed for) the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopian troops, this timing is interesting as a subtle measure of the possible difference in foreign policy between Bush and Obama. Shortly after the occupying troops left, the once-ascendant, now resurgent militant Islamist forces lead by Shabab (which the US government designates as a terrorist organization) took control.

-In other regional civil wars, the Sri Lankan government forces have taken the last stronghold of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (who are also listed as a terrorist organization by the US government…). This might signal the end of conventional warfare in the civil war on the island that has lasted for over thirty years. The problem, created by British colonialism, of self-determination for the minority Tamil population is far from being at an end.

-The Bolivian people have approved a new constitution in a popular referendum. Will Evo Morales join in the fight to bring justice to the second poorest country in Latin America?

-Finally, this has been passing around a lot, but everyone should check out this list of the 25 people responsible for the economic crisis New Great Depression.

UPDATE (1-29-09): The Canadian Parliament looks set to pass the politically momentous budget. The Liberal Party had pushed for a shocking coalition government between them, the New Democratic Party, and the Bloc Quebecois, ousting the electorally semi-victorious Conservative Party led by Stephan Harper from power back in early December; however, Harper delayed the fall of his government until the budget came up for a vote. In the meantime, the Liberal Party switched leaders from the weak Stephane Dion to Michael Ignatieff and the Canadian public balked slightly at the prospect of the secessionist Bloc Quebecois joining the government. Given the likely worsening of the economic crisis in Canada, a few months of Harper rule might put the Liberals in a better position for the next elections.

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The Significance of Weimar Germany

In the early 1920s, Germany’s Weimar Republic was forced to pay reparations due to its defeat in World War I. The massive scale of reparations to foreign countries forced the government to essentially pay by printing lots of paper money. This debased the Weimar currency (papiermark) and in combination with other forces led to hyperinflation; Germans carting around wheelbarrows of cash to get a loaf of bread is the iconic image of hyperinflation (although the Zimbabwean $100 TRILLION banknote might replace it).

Today in the United States, there are fears of deflation as the economy severely contracts. However, the spectre of inflation, and hyperinflation, is rearing its head. The origins of this are rather complex and involve the financial crisis, the Wars, the deficit, globalization, and oil. The United States government and private sector have been amassing a huge debt to foreign creditors for years. The Bush Era saw dangerously low interest rates that allowed easy credit for this borrowing (also causing the housing bubble and bust) and two wars that expanded the military so much that the US deficit has reached levels that are basically fantastical (check this out for an idea of the scale of debt we are talking about). The emergence of the financial crisis in which the US government, through the Treasury and (probably unconstitutionally) through the Federal Reserve, has loaned out outlandish trillions of dollars to bankrupt banks has further expanded the problem. Now the US government is talking about the much-needed stimulus package to fight the wider economic crisis and Obama has put out a figure of $850 billion (most sensical economists think that two to three times that amount will be necessary to get the economy recovering). Thus, more massive borrowing is needed. At the risk of being redundant, this borrowing will need to be financed by foreign creditors (in large part, China).

Here is where things get tricky. With this amount of borrowing, the US economic problems, and the global economic crisis, it is likely that many foreign creditors will be unwilling to continue financing US debt. Therefore, to pay for the stimulus (and the continued Wars) the US government will need to print money (of course the US government already prints money but, simplistically, this is to replace damaged money already in circulation). This will cause the value of the US dollar to drop (the definition of inflation). With this prospect, it is a real possibility that foreign US currency holders (foreign creditors) will sell off their reserves to avoid further losses as those reserves lose value. Not only will the momentous (and probably inevitable) end of the dollar’s status as global reserve currency come about, but the dollar will precipitously decline in value, causing horrendous inflation. The price of food and all other goods will increase rapidly. Needless to say, US workers already barely getting by will experience even more severe hardship.

If hyperinflation is not occuring at that point, it would not be far off. The summer of 2008 saw rapid increases in the price of oil. While this was mostly speculation, the speculation was based on solid facts. Global oil production has or is about to reach a peak (at the same time, demand from rapidly industrializing societies in Asia is increasing). The tightening of supply and (possible) increasing of demand of oil will cause not only the price of oil to steadly (and maybe dramatically) go up but will also drag most other prices up with it, since food and anything that needs to be transported is dependent on the price of oil. Inflation will be coming from two sides, crushing US workers in the middle. Finally, the valueless US dollar might be abandoned as the currency-of-choice for Saudi Arabian oil, leading to the complete debasement of the US dollar and unending hyperinflation.

War debt, recession, printing currency to pay foreign creditors; this is the same situation faced by the United States as was Weimar Germany. The hyperinflation itself is horrific enough in its effects on people. As history played out, the result of hyperinflation also led to an instability that brought to rise the most terrible regime ever. That is the the true spectre haunting the United States of America today.

UPDATE (1-29-09): More on upcoming borrowing by the US government in this New York Times piece: “[Senator Charles Schumer] added that a number of officials estimate it may take up to $3 trillion to $4 trillion to buy the bad assets [of the financial sector],” and “Mr. Summers [Head of the White House's National Economic Council and former Treasury Secretary] privately expressed concern last week that spending too much to buy bad assets could cripple the dollar, according to a person who spoke with him.” Three to four trillion dollars is more than three times as much as the current stimulus bill costs…

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